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                  <h1 id='t_6618060b0102xdbq'>大盘反弹行情或已悄然展开</h1>
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                      <span class="time">2016-06-28 06:44:49</span><a href="#writeComm"><span id='comment_tj_6618060b0102xdbq' >评论</span></a>
																					<a class="btn" href="http://search.sina.com.cn/?c=blog&q=%B7%B4%B5%AF%D0%D0%C7%E9&by=tag" target="_blank"><span>反弹行情</span></a>
															<a class="btn" href="http://search.sina.com.cn/?c=blog&q=%B3%C9%BD%BB%C1%BF&by=tag" target="_blank"><span>成交量</span></a>
															<a class="btn" href="http://search.sina.com.cn/?c=blog&q=%D1%A1%B9%C9&by=tag" target="_blank"><span>选股</span></a>
															<a class="btn" href="http://search.sina.com.cn/?c=blog&q=%B2%D9%D7%F7%B2%DF%C2%D4&by=tag" target="_blank"><span>操作策略</span></a>
															<a class="btn" href="http://search.sina.com.cn/?c=blog&q=%B9%C9%B5%C0%B1%F8%B7%A8&by=tag" target="_blank"><span>股道兵法</span></a>
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						<div><b><font>股友聊天室</FONT></B></DIV>
<div><b><font>&#65288;2016.06.28.晨&#65289;</FONT></B></DIV>
<div><b><font><br /></FONT></B></DIV>
<b><font>　　问&#65306;近日欧美股市因英国脱欧事件的影响出现暴跌&#65292;但昨天A股却出现低开高走的喜人走势&#65292;是否A股将寻求向上突破&#65292;开始走上升行情&#65311;</FONT></B>
<div><b><font>　　答&#65306;我在这几天的的博文中多次提出大盘向下运行的空间已经被封杀&#65292;但向上展开行情的条件似乎还没有成熟&#65292;所以大盘将继续维持横向震荡的格局&#65292;实际昨天大盘走得比我想象的强势。我是个趋势投资者&#65292;虽然对大盘运行表示谨慎&#65292;但趋势发生变化就必须服从趋势。我在昨天的博文中说了&#65292;大盘是否走出上升行情一看创业板综指&#65292;二看两融余额是否开始上升。从昨天创业板综指走势看&#65292;向上突破的雏形已经出现。春江水暖鸭先知&#65292;我的感觉是大盘的反弹行情已经悄然展开&#65292;理由如下&#65306;</FONT></B></DIV>
<div><b><font>　　&#65288;一&#65289;当前大盘要展开大级别的反弹行情&#65292;创业板综指必须符合以下三个要求&#65306;</FONT></B></DIV>
<div><b><font>　　&#65288;1&#65289;创业板综指必须有效向上突破长达数月的收敛三角形上轨。</FONT></B></DIV>
<div><b><font>　　&#65288;2&#65289;创业板综指必须有效向上突破年线。</FONT></B></DIV>
<div><b><font>　　&#65288;3&#65289;创业板综指必须创出4月15日的高点2762.90点。</FONT></B></DIV>
<div><b><font>　　截至昨天创业板综指这三个要求全部达标&#65292;这意味着创业板综指的中期趋势已经发生变化&#65292;即低点越来越高&#65292;高点也越来越高&#65292;这是趋势投资者可以开始进行右侧交易的信号。</FONT></B></DIV>
<div><b><font>　　&#65288;二&#65289;两大重量级利空&#65288;A股纳入NSCI指数受挫、英国脱欧&#65289;没能把A股砸下去&#65292;还有什么利空能把大盘再砸下去呢&#65311;该跌不跌理应看涨&#65292;大盘只有向上寻求突破。</FONT></B></DIV>
<div><b><font>　　&#65288;三&#65289;马上将进入下半年&#65292;深港通开闸在即&#65292;这项利多将对大盘向上运行起到推波助澜的作用。</FONT></B></DIV>
<div><b><font>　　&#65288;四&#65289;半年报行情即将展开&#65292;大盘结构性行情必然此起彼伏&#65292;这将有利于推升大盘向上运行。</FONT></B></DIV>
<div><b><font>　　鉴于以上几条理由&#65292;我认为大盘的反弹行情已经悄然进入运行模式&#65292;如果这几天大盘两融余额数据能不断上升&#65292;那么行情的可信度就更高。</FONT></B></DIV>
<div><b><font><br /></FONT></B></DIV>
<div><b><font>　　问&#65306;昨天大盘的成交量比前一天萎缩&#65292;你怎么看&#65311;</FONT></B></DIV>
<div><b><font>　　答&#65306;现在是熊市的底部区域&#65292;怎么可能成交量天天放大呢&#65292;看成交量不能看某一天&#65292;而要看一个阶段。打开创业板综指的K线图看&#65292;短期均量线和中期均量线都在缓缓向上移动&#65292;这就告诉我们&#65292;场外资金已在小碎步入场&#65292;我们要有耐心等&#65292;当然这个等是指建好仓等&#65292;我在上面说了&#65292;趋势已经发生了变化&#65292;难道还要空仓等&#65311;有人说成交量不足就是股市没有人气&#65292;恐怕大盘难以上涨。错了&#65281;历史上的大行情都是大盘涨了人气才来&#65292;如果大盘不涨就永远不会有人气&#65292;这就是股市中常说的赚钱效应。但话要说回来&#65292;英国脱欧产生的蝴蝶效应对全球金融市场的影响会持续一段时间&#65292;估计近几天周边市场还会大幅震荡&#65292;况且A股人气还没有恢复&#65292;A股的走势一定不会一帆风顺&#65292;可能会有一些波折&#65292;但我认为如果大盘受此影响出现调整那就是加仓的良机&#65292;千万不要犹豫或者恐惧。</FONT></B></DIV>
<div><b><font><br /></FONT></B></DIV>
<div><b><font>　　问&#65306;你以前说的高抛低吸的操作策略是否继续&#65292;选股方面要注意些什么&#65311;</FONT></B></DIV>
<div><b><font>　　答&#65306;我以前一直提倡高抛低吸操作是因为大盘趋势还没有明朗&#65292;既然创业板综指已经出现小荷才露尖尖角&#65292;操作思路就要有所改变&#65292;手中持有优质股的应开始捂股&#65292;不能再高抛了。如果手中都是投机股或者是劣质股&#65292;就抓紧调仓换股。大盘如出现调整&#65292;可大胆加仓。当然现在来确认牛市开始未免太早&#65292;先应该看作是一波有一定力度的反弹行情&#65292;既然是反弹行情那必然是结构性行情&#65292;选好个股很重要&#65292;建议<font>近阶段选股标的是&#65306;优选中小创、行业景气度高、公司有业绩高成长预期、有题材或热点、半年报预增、估值低估的股票。</FONT>这个选股思路可以贯穿今年整个下半年。</FONT></B></DIV>
<div><b><font><br /></FONT></B></DIV>
<div><b><font>　　【友情提示】本博所有博文均为笔者原创&#65292;如需转载请标明出处&#65292;否则属侵权行为,敬请自重。</FONT></B></DIV>
<div><b><font><br /></FONT></B></DIV>
<div><b><font>　　【我的相关博文】</FONT></B></DIV>
<div><b><font>　　《<a HREF="http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_6618060b0102vws5.html" TARGET="_blank"><font>如何用筛选法进行选股</FONT></A>》</FONT></B></DIV>
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